Councillors showing support for LTNs had “no effect” on holding seats in 2022 London local elections, new study finds
New analysis commissioned by climate charity Possible and conducted by the Active Travel Academy, Westminster University has found that incumbent London councillors representing areas with Low Traffic Neighbourhoods who tweeted about LTNs were no more or less likely to hold their seat in the 2022 local elections than those who did not tweet about LTNs.
In the run up to the 2022 local elections, there was much media discussion around possible effects of councillors’ support for LTNs, with varying expectations that it could be electorally negative, positive, or neutral. This report finds no statistically-significant evidence of a negative effect for councillors who supported LTNs ahead of the 2022 elections.
The online and wider debate about LTNs is highly polarised, and opponents to LTNs are very vocal about their opposition. This analysis found that most incumbent councillors chose not to tweet at all about LTNs prior to the 2022 local elections, perhaps owing to fear that taking any public position on LTNs could reduce their chances of being re-elected.
However, this report confirms that councillors who tweeted about LTNs - whether in favour or against - were no more or less likely to hold their seat than councillors who did not tweet about LTNs at all between 1st Jan 2020 and the date of the 2022 local elections. This suggests that LTNs are not the election-defining issue they are sometimes assumed or portrayed to be.
While tweeting about LTNs had no statistically-significant effect on the probability of holding a seat, the report finds evidence that tweeting about LTNs was associated with a small but measurable positive change in relative number of votes compared to not tweeting about LTNs, when comparing the results of the 2018 and 2022 elections. This suggests that, overall, there were some positive electoral effects associated with tweeting about LTNs.
The analysis also finds a polarised divide between the main parties on attitudes towards LTNs. Conservative councillors were generally negative in their public stance on LTNs, with not a single Conservative councillor in the study tweeting positively about LTNs in the run up to the 2022 elections, while no Labour councillor tweeted negatively about LTNs. Liberal Democrat councillors were split in their sentiment.
The researchers found a statistically significant difference in the relationship between sentiment of the tweets and change in relative vote shares amongst Labour and Conservative councillors. The more positive a sitting Labour councillor was about LTNs in their tweets, the greater their share of votes increased between 2018 and 2022. By contrast, Conservative councillors appeared to see a small gain in vote share for being more hostile towards LTNs on Twitter - although in both cases the effect was too small to impact on winning or losing seats in the election.
Despite the polarised debate online and in the media, weighted polling of the voting public shows support for LTNs. New polling from Redfield and Wilton found that 58% of Londoners support LTNs, with only 17% in opposition.
Research conducted on LTNs in London has suggested that the schemes are associated with positive outcomes such as lower car ownership, reduced traffic volume, increased walking and cycling levels, lower levels of air pollution, reduced street crime, and reduced road traffic injuries.
Hirra Khan Adeogun, co-director of campaigns at climate charity Possible said:
“The debate around low traffic neighbourhoods on Twitter is polarised, toxic and febrile, but our new analysis shows that they aren’t the election-defining culture war frontier their critics wish that they were.
“This groundbreaking new analysis should give politicians everywhere the courage to speak up for low traffic neighbourhoods, safe in the knowledge that they won’t be punished at the ballot box for championing calmer streets.”
ENDS
Notes to editors:
The full report, entitled Sound and Fury?: The impact of councillors’ LTN positions on voting behaviour in Greater London, can be found here.
For media enquiries and further information please contact press@wearepossible.org or 07402197021
Hirra Khan Adeogun, co-director at climate charity Possible, is available for comment. Please contact press@wearepossible.org for more information.
Possible is a UK based charity that brings people together to take positive, practical action on climate change. Combining individual and local actions with larger systemic change, we connect people with each other, and communities with ways to address the climate crisis.